The Lone Elm

More "Fauxtography"

It is worth taking a close look at what is in the news these days.  Michael Totten shows a clear example of a photoshopped result that is being used to help fan the flames in Lebanon.  The worst is that the image of the man with the machine gun is taken from another photo of very questionable nature. 

Showdown Time?

This morning the London Times reports that Israel is prepared to use small nuclear warheads to destroy Iran's uranium enrichment capabilities.  Because of the underground fortifications that protects the Iranian complex, this will require special "bunker-busting" types of bombs. The Times has more on the nature of such a mission.  Ralph Peters makes a pretty good case that Bush has tapped a Navy man for the Middle East CentCom position because of the Iranian issues.  A sidebar to the Peters commentary notes that ships from the United States, United Kingdom and Australia are all steaming towards the Middle East to beef up our force there. There is more on the buildup at Debkafile.  Jules Crittenden points out the domestic division of opinion, and concludes that if we withdraw now, as Ms. Pelosi and Sen. Reid recommend, "I predict a dark age, in which brutal second-rate powers such as Russia, China, Iran and North Korea do what they choose to whom they choose without restraint. An age of modern warlords, with no over-arching, feared power to keep them in check. We can watch the sick man that is Europe slowly succumb. We can watch small free nations try to fend for themselves. We can await the inevitable nuclear crisis."  And of course, Israel faces potential destruction.  There is no choice but to try to get Iraq stabilized, fortify our friends and try to back Iran off.

Litvinenko Poisoning

This morning, the Times of London is reporting that Litvinenko's guest for sushi dinner the evening of December 1, is suffering significant pulonium poisoning.  The amatuer sleuths are going wild, and have some very interesting analysis.  TRex at Firedoglake discusses what it would take to deliver the pulonium; bottom line is that this is a method requiring considerable sophistication. Also really interesting is Larisa Alexandrovna's idea that the pulonium might have been delivered via cigarettes. AJ Strata thinks this is a "botched nuclear contraband effort."  If the pulonium was being brought into Britain, what did the conspirators plan to do with it?  Wretchard at Belmont Club (see comment interchange) suggests that the intent was to engage in a mass poisoning (looks like they had plenty of material for that!).   The additional commentary is also interesting.  Litvenko had recently converted to Islam and appeared to be quite wealthy.  Wretchard's conclusion is pretty depressing:

"Effectively we've just stumbled on a new weapons system with absolutely wonderful properties in the realm of terrorist warfare. I'm going to speculate that the bulk supplies are under positive control in Russia. They won't let the merchandise out until its ready to be used. It will be delivered just in time for the same reason nukes are kept under strict control until they are ready to be used. Even murder has logic.

But since any reasonable mass radioactive poisoning scenario will be effectively the equivalent of a unclaimed small tactical nuke or dirty bomb, the incident reveals our lack of a doctrine to deal with such threats. And if thousands of kids were poisoned with polonium tomorrow, would Blair nuke Russia? Or Pakistan? Would Pelosi even countenance the suggestion? Not as far as I can see.

We are in a war for our lives, whatever alternate universe certain people think they live in. And as Karen Carpenter said, "we only just begun"."

Creative Statistics

There have been a couple of interesting analyses of widely reported conclusions that do not stand up to critical statistical analysis. 

The first is in Opinion Journal by Steven E. Moore regarding the widely reported Johns Hopkins study estimate of the death of 655,000 Iraqis since the U.S. invasion.  Mr. Moore explains how these sorts of estimates are done and why the recent John Hopkins analysis simply does not have the qualities to stand up to critical analysis. Definitely worth a careful read.

The second is by Jay Cost at Real Clear Politics.  Mr. Cost explains why the recent polling results do not represent the likely outcome of the election. To quote:  "One of the problems with making estimates like this is that, even when we have strong reasons to expect that the Democrats will pick up 25 seats, there is still a good chance that they will pick up less than 15 seats. The reason is that our estimate - regardless of the solid reasons that inform it - is only a central tendency. We must therefore expect some random variation around it. If we run the same type of election again and again and again - we would find, if we are right, that the average result will indeed be 25 seats. Sometimes, however, more seats will switch; sometimes less seats will switch, including less than 15."  The random variation leads to an expected result less than the popular view.  Fascinating and also worth your attention.

Korean Nuclear Test Finally Edges Foley Story Out of the Limelight

Unhappily, the North Koreans have proceed with a nuclear bomb test.  See AP report at Yahoo and BBC. The "good" news is that this will finally move the Foley story onto the back burner where it belongs; the "bad" news is that North Korea has a bomb and the capability to shoot it a considerable distance.  See Michelle Malkin for a thorough wrap-up.  Richard Gardner points out the North Korea has violated an international agreement and, in essence taken an illegal action.  Austin Bay discusses the ugly dynamics along the Chinese/North Korean border, and quotes at length from this Times Online story.

To stay up-to-date on this huge story, check out Memeorandum regularly.

Sunday Snippets

Susan Nielsen has it about right -- she talks about how the "devil" follows us around, encouraging us to live more like the Jones's across the street - a hot tub, fancier car, bigger house.  In the process, we end up buying things we can't afford or don't need.  It's definitely tough fending off the spending devil!

Yesterday, September 23, was the autumnal equinox, where the day and night were equal.  From here on out until December, daylight is going to continue to decline.  While fall is beautiful, this is not the easiest time of year -- too much is going on:  work, all of the family's birthdays happen within about a month and a half, and then Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays.  In the past I've also had rounds with seasonal affective disorder (SAD) where the lack of light really affects my emotional state.  Von del Chamberlain dashes water on the idea that one can balance eggs on the equinox.

Maybe the way to make it through the fall is by eating soup!  The Soupsong website is a fabulous resource, not only of recipes but of all the lore surrounding soup.  Check out the special Halloween soup!  Also a spectacular array of international soups.  And if you're feeling a little off, perhaps this Belgian chicken soup would do the trick.  Patricia Solley also has a book on soup - An Exaltation of Soups which has positive reviews on Amazon.

Up Close and Personal with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

In an interview with Ximena Ortiz, Maurice Greenberg reports on his reaction to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.  Greenberg is the former chairman and CEO of AIG, an experienced businessman.  He met Ahmadinejad at a small gathering sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations. (Hat tip to The American Thinker.)  This is mandatory reading.  Greenberg judges Ahmadinejad to be "crazy like a fox" and says "He's offensive. He's smug. He's a danger."  Greenberg concludes that: "We can't deal with him. You can't deal with this guy. I do not believe that we should let him come into possession of the capabilities to manufacture a nuclear device, or achieve it by an indirect means, such as buying it from somebody else."  

Speculation regarding Osama bin Laden

Ace of Spades sums up evidence that indicates Osama bin Laden may have passed away after a short bout with typhoid.  At this point, the story has not been picked up by the MSM - it will be interesting to see where this goes.  Also, it is not clear that it is going to make much of a dent in the enemy's capabilities to inflict harm.  See also All Things Beautiful and Riehl World View.

Its Monday!

Well, there are plenty of dismal things going on, and I'd rather not be going to work, but that's life!  Some cheery little things I ambled onto in my Google wanderings include:

> When we go to do anything even remotely "dangerous,"  the sponsoring business makes us sign a waiver.  Well, Coyote Blog has the ultimate of all waivers put out by a private nature park.  A couple of snippets include: " If you climb, you may die or be seriously injured. This is true whether you are experienced or not, trained or not, equipped or not, though training and equipment may help. It's a fact, climbing is extremely dangerous. If you don't like it, stay at home. You really shouldn't be doing it anyway."  Another:  " By entering the Preserve, you are agreeing that we owe you no duty of care or any other duty. We promise you nothing. We do not and will not even try to keep the premises safe for any purpose. The premises are not safe for any purpose."  Talk about plain English!

> The Bunny Rabbit is becoming an accomplished unicyclist.  It turns out that there are all sorts of unicycling sub-sports and related specialized unicycles.  You can go touring on your unicycle (see Unicycle Tours). A unitour in southern China with wonderful photos and a diary is worth a look.  There is also competitive unicycling.  See this amazing show by a Japanese unicyclist on YouTube.  There are Unicycle Clubs -- the New York Unicycle Club presents a nice film on YouTube as well.

Have a great day!

Political Correctness Run Amok?

The Muslim community has reacted to Pope Benedict's speech from last Tuesday -- not with reasoned debate.   No, no, no, instead with, as Michelle Malkin puts it, "firebombs and fatwas."  As the BBC reports, efforts to clarify the Pope's speech have not been sufficient, possibly because the outraged Muslim community has chosen to misinterpret the speech.  I am sure that the militant elements were just waiting for another event that they could use to fan the anger of the masses. 

Yet again we are reminded that any statements that our radical Muslim populations disagree with should be withdrawn, apologized for or otherwise negated -- or else, these folks will kill people and destroy our homes, churches and lives!   What are the choices?  Shall we let them destroy our right of free speech by appeasing them through "political correct" speech designed not to make them mad?  In that case, we are on the way to living in a world run by these so-called Islamo-fascists  (maybe someone can come up with a better name, but for now that will have to do) - who are going to tell us what to worship, what to say, what to wear, how many children to have, whether women can work, whether we can watch or make the movies we want, etc. 

For more commentary, see Tigerhawk, Protein Wisdom, The American Thinker, and The Jawa Report.